The Washington Post defined swing states for the 2004 election as those that were decided by less than three percentage points in the 2000 presidential election. Using those criteria, the swing states for 2004 are Oregon, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Florida. The Los Angeles Times, in a pre-Super Tuesday evaluation of the Democratic slate, also named Ohio and Missouri as other critical swing states. Bloomberg adds West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Michigan and Nevada and says the two major parties believe 18 states are in play in 2004. Molly Ivins, in an April 3, 2004 column, also lists Louisiana. In an April 28 Washington Post feature on the red state-blue state split in America, potential 2004 swing states listed as: Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and Wisconsin. In John Kerry's presidential campaign, many considered Virginia a swing state.

Alphabetical order

1. Arizona: 10 Electoral votes
2. Arkansas: 6 Electoral votes
3. Delaware: 3 Electoral votes
4. Florida: 27 Electoral votes
5. Iowa: 7 Electoral votes
6. Louisiana: 9 Electoral votes
7. Maine: 4 Electoral votes
8. Michigan: 17 Electoral votes
9. Minnesota: 10 Electoral votes
10. Missouri: 11 Electoral votes
11. Nevada: 5 Electoral votes
12. New Hampshire: 4 Electoral votes
13. New Mexico: 5 Electoral votes
14. Ohio: 20 Electoral votes
15. Oregon: 7 Electoral votes
16. Pennsylvania: 21 Electoral votes
17. Washington: 11 Electoral votes
18. West Virginia: 5 Electoral votes
19. Wisconsin: 10 Electoral votes

A survey conducted by a firm for the Bush campaign also gave a figure of 19 states, but with slightly different results. It cited these states as "the 19 battleground states in which the Bush and Kerry campaigns have focused their paid media efforts to this point". The states were:

1. Arizona
2. Arkansas
3. Colorado
4. Florida
5. Iowa
6. Louisiana
7. Maine
8. Michigan
9. Minnesota
10. Missouri
11. Nevada
12. New Hampshire
13. New Mexico
14. Ohio
15. Oregon
16. Pennsylvania
17. Washington
18. West Virginia
19. Wisconsin

Some observers have labeled Ohio as the most important battleground state. The Gore campaign in 2000 gave up on Ohio with weeks to go before the election, but some statistics seem to indicate that Gore was gaining ground there and might have won the state had he persevered. With Ohio, Gore would not have needed Florida to win. Ohio has not gone to the losing candidate since 1960, when Richard Nixon won Ohio but lost the election to John F. Kennedy.

Traditionally, labor unions have had a strong grassroots network in the state. However, since 1970, Ohio's manufacturing base has taken one hit after another, with more big blows coming during the George W. Bush administration. A weakened union organization is accompanied by an Ohio Democratic Party that is in shambles. While the Kerry campaign tried to build its Ohio campaign from the ground up, the Ohio Republicans were able to spend months building a grassroots campaign modeled on multi-level marketing schemes such as Amway. [1]