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Particle filter

Particle filter methods, also known as Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), are sophisticated model estimation techniques based on simulation.

They are usually used to estimate Bayesian models and are the sequential ('on-line') analogue of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) batch methods.

Contents

Goal

The particle filter aims to estimate the hidden parameters, βk for k=0,1,2,3, \cdots, based only observed data yk for k=0,1,2,3, \cdots. This method requires:

  • \beta_0, \beta_1, \cdots is a Markov process such that
    \beta_k|\beta_{k-1} \sim p_{\beta_k|\beta_{k-1}}(\beta|\beta_{k-1})
  • y_0, y_1, \cdots are conditionally independent provided that \beta_0, \beta_1, \cdots are known
  • Each yk only depends on βk
    y_k|\beta_k \sim p_{y|\beta}(y|\beta_k)

One example form of this scenario is

βk = fk - 1) + wk
yk = hk) + xk

where both wk and xk are independent and identitically distributed sequences with known probability density functions and f() & g() are known functions. These two equations can be viewed as state space equations and looks similar to the state space equations for the Kalman filter.

"Direct version" algorithm

The "direct version" algorithm is rather simple (compared to other particle filtering algorithms) and it uses composition and rejection. To generate a single sample β at k from p_{\beta_k|y_{1:k}}(\beta|y_{1:k}):

1) Set p=1
2) Uniformly generate L from [0,P]
3) Generate a test \hat{\beta} from its distribution p_{\beta_k|\beta_{k-1}}(\beta|\beta_{k-1|k-1}^{(L)})
4) Generate the probability of \hat{y} using \hat{\beta} from p_{y|\beta}(y_k|\hat{\beta}) where yk is the measured value
5) Generate another uniform u from [0,mk]
6) Compare u and \hat{y}
6a) If u is larger then repeat from step 2
6b) If u is smaller then save \hat{\beta} as βk | k(p) and increment p
7) If p > P then quit

The goal is to generate P "particles" at k using only the particles from k - 1. This requires that a Markov equation can be written (and computed) to generate a βk based only upon βk - 1. This algorithm uses composition of the P particles from k - 1 to generate a particle at k and repeats (steps 2-6) until P particles are generated at k.


This can be more easily visualized if β is viewed as a two-dimensional array. One dimension is k and the other dimensions is the particle number. For example, β(k,L) would be the Lth particle at k and can also be written \beta_k^{(L)} (as done above in the algorithm). Step 3 generates a potential βk based on a randomly chosen particle (\beta_{k-1}^{(L)}) at time k - 1 and rejects or accepts it in step 6. In other words, the βk values are generated using the previously generated βk - 1.


Generally, this algorithm is repeated iteratively for a specific number of k values (call this N). Initializing βk = 0 | k = 0 for all particles provides a starting place to generate β1, which can then be used to generate β2, which can be used to generate β3 and so on up to k = N. When done, the mean of βk over all the particles (or \frac{1}{P}\sum_{L=1}^P \beta_k^{(L)}) is approximately the actual value of βk.

See also

References

  • Sequential Monte Carlo Methods in Practice, by A Doucet, N de Freitas and N Gordon. Published by Springer.
  • Tutorial on Particle Filters for On-line Nonlinear/Non-Gaussian Bayesian Tracking (2001); S. Arulampalam, S. Maskell, N. Gordon and T. Clapp; CiteSeer link
10-26-2009 08:16:03
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