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Rule of 72

In finance, the rule of 72 is a simple method of calculating the approximate number of periods over which a quantity will double. If you divide 72 by the expected growth rate, expressed as a percentage, the answer is approximately the number of periods to double the original quantity. For instance, if you were to invest $100 at 9% per annum, then your investment would be worth $200 after 8.0432 years, using an exact calculation. The rule of 72 gives 72/9=8 years, which is close to the exact answer. See time value of money.

On the other hand if you were to leave $100 uninvested when inflation was 9% per annum, the purchasing power of your $100 would have halved after 8 (72/9) years.

Derivation

The future value is given by

FV = PV \cdot (1+r)^t,

where PV is the present value, t is the number of time periods, and r stands for the discount rate per time period.

Now, suppose that the money has doubled, then FV = 2 PV. Substituting this in the above formula and cancelling the factor PV on both side yields

2 = (1 + r)t.

This equation is easily solved for t:

t = \frac{\ln 2}{\ln(1+r)}.

If r is small, then ln(1+r) approximately equals r (this is the first term in the Taylor series). Together with the approximation ln 2 ≈ 0.693, this gives

t = \frac{0.693}{r}.

So for very small rates, 69.3 would be more accurate than 72. For higher rates, a bigger numerator would be better (e.g. for 20%, using 76 to get 3.8 years would be more accurate than 3.6). 72 is reasonable approximation across this range and is easily divisible by many numbers.

See also

External links

10-26-2009 08:16:03
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