South Belfast is a Parliamentary Constituency in the House of Commons and also an Assembly constituency in the Northern Ireland Assembly.

Boundaries

The seat was created in 1922 when as part of the establishement of the devolved Stormont Parliament for Northern Ireland, the number of MPs in the Westminster Parliament was drastically cut. The seat is centred on the south section of Belfast and also contains part of the district of Castlereagh.

Proposed Boundary changes

At the time of writing the Boundary Commission has proposed alterations for the boundaries of constituencies in Northern Ireland. South Belfast currently has one of the smallest electorates of any constituency in Northern Ireland. Some have suggested abolishing the seat and cutting Belfast down to three constituencies, but others have argued that the geography and natural ties in Belfast make this unweildy. The Boundary Commission proposals eschew this suggestion and instead propose to expand South Belfast further into Castlereagh, taking in areas currently contained in both Strangford and East Belfast.

Westminster elections

The Member of Parliament since a 1982 by-election is the Rev Martin Smyth of the Ulster Unionist Party. He succeeded Robert Bradford who sat for the Vanguard Progressive Unionist Party from 1974 until 1977 then for the Ulster Unionist Party from 1977 until his assassination by the IRA at the end of 1981.

Smyth announced in January 2005 that he will be standing down at the UK general election, 2005/06.

MPs since 1922

• 1922 - 1929 Thomas Moles Ulster Unionist Party
• 1929 - 1945 W.J. Stewart Ulster Unionist Party
• 1945 - 1952 C.H. Gage Ulster Unionist Party
• 1952 by-election - 1963 Sir David Campbell
• 1963 by-election - 1974 Rafton Pounder Ulster Unionist Party
• 1974 - 1981 Robert Bradford Vanguard Progressive Unionist Party (1974-1977), Ulster Unionist Party (1977-1981)
• 1982 (by-election) - 2005 Martin Smyth Ulster Unionist Party

Assemblies and Forum elections

The six MLAs for the constituency elected in the 2003 election are:

• Esmond Birnie Ulster Unionist Party
• Carmel Hanna Social Democratic and Labour Party
• Alex Maskey Sinn Fein
• Alasdair McDonnell Social Democratic and Labour Party
• Michael McGimpsey Ulster Unionist Party
• Mark Robinson Democratic Unionist Party

In the 1998 election the six MLAs elected were:

• Esmond Birnie Ulster Unionist Party
• Carmel Hanna Social Democratic and Labour Party
• Alasdair McDonnell Social Democratic and Labour Party
• Michael McGimpsey Ulster Unionist Party
• Monica McWilliams Northern Ireland Women's Coalition
• Mark Robinson Democratic Unionist Party

In the 1996 election to the Northern Ireland Peace Forum, 5 Forum members were elected from North Belfast. They were as follows:

• James Clarke Ulster Unionist Party
• Steve McBride Alliance Party of Northern Ireland
• Alasdair McDonnell Social Democratic and Labour Party
• Joan Parkes Democratic Unionist Party
• Robert Stoker Ulster Unionist Party

In 1982 elections were held for an Assembly for Northern Ireland to hold the Secretary of State to account, in the hope that this would be the first step towards restoring devolution. South Belfast elected 5 members as follows:

• David Cook Alliance Party of Northern Ireland
• Edgar Graham Ulster Unionist Party
• Thomas Kirkpatrick Ulster Unionist Party
• Raymond McCrea Democratic Unionist Party
• Martin Smyth Ulster Unionist Party

Changes 1982-1986

• Edgar Graham Ulster Unionist Party assassinated by the IRA on December 7 1983. Frank Millar , also Ulster Unionist Party elected unopposed in by-election on March 1 1984.

In 1975 elections were held to a Constitutional Convention which sought (unsuccessfully) to generate a consensus on the future of the province. The six members elected from South Belfast were:

• Jeremy Burchill Ulster Unionist Party
• Thomas Burns Democratic Unionist Party
• Basil Glass Alliance Party of Northern Ireland
• Jim Hendron Alliance Party of Northern Ireland
• Martin Smyth Ulster Unionist Party
• David Trimble Vanguard Progressive Unionist Party

In 1973 elections were held to the Assembly set up under the Sunningdale Agreement. The six members elected from North Belfast were:

• Thomas Burns Democratic Unionist Party
• Nelson Elder Ulster Unionist Party pro Sunningdale
• Basil Glass Alliance Party of Northern Ireland
• Herbert Kirk Ulster Unionist Party pro Sunningdale
• Reginald Magee Ulster Unionist Party pro Sunningdale
• Basil McIvor Ulster Unionist Party pro Sunningdale

Politics and History of the constituency

South Belfast has a unionist majority though the nationalist vote is considerable. There have also been strong votes for non-sectarian parties such as the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland, the Conservatives and the Northern Ireland Women's Coalition. The seat has also seen a steady series of candidates backed by groups who aspire to support the British Labour Party despite its prior ban on membership and organisation in Northern Ireland, though their results have been minimal. Since its inception the main focus of attention has been on contests between unionist candidates.

In the February 1974 general election the seat was won by Robert Bradford of the Vanguard Progressive Unionist Party on a united anti-Sunningdale Agreement slate with the Ulster Unionist Party and the Democratic Unionist Party. He defeated Rafton Pounder , the sitting Unionist MP who defended his seat as a Pro-Assembly Unionist . Bradford held the seat for the next seven years, though in (1977) he and the rump of Vanguard reunited with the Ulster Unionists. At the end of 1981 Bradford was assassinated by the IRA.

The subsequent by-election garnered much interest as it was expected that the Democratic Unionist Party would take the seat, building on their steady rise which had seen them gain both North Belfast and East Belfast at the previous general election. However in the event the DUP came third, behind the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland and the UUP's candidate, Martin Smyth won the seat, holding it ever since.

In the 2001 general election less than 50% of voters voted for Unionist parties for the first time in its history, but this has been attributed to a collapse in the vote for the small Progressive Unionist Party as well as to Smyth's fierce opposition to the Good Friday Agreement which is estimated to have sent many pro Agreement Unionist voters to tactically vote for the Social Democratic and Labour Party. Few doubt that the seat will be lost by unionists in the near future.

In January 2005 Smyth announced that he would be retiring at the forthcoming general election, raising speculation both as to whom the Ulster Unionists will field against him and what effect a different candidate will have upon their share of the vote.