Hello. I've reverted "posterior predictive probability of new cases given previous, observed cases" to "posterior probability of new cases given previous, observed cases". A predictive probability is just the probability of something that someone wants to predict; given that the sentence already spells out that we're interested in "new cases given previous, observed cases", it doesn't add anything. I don't mean to be difficult, I just don't think it's an improvement. Happy editing, Wile E. Heresiarch 22:14, 16 Oct 2004 (UTC)

Ok, I see your point. In my mind "posterior probability" is reserved for a distribution over parameters, but I agree that in the context of the article the intended meaning is clear. --MarkSweep 09:29, 17 Oct 2004 (UTC)

From a Bayesian point of view, probability can be assessed for any kind of variable, so any kind of variable may have a posterior probability. It's quite commonly the case that posterior probabilities are assessed for model parameters, but that doesn't restrict the use of the term in other contexts. Happy editing, Wile E. Heresiarch 16:59, 17 Oct 2004 (UTC)