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Title: By analyzing the recorded data of the past and developing mathematical
tables,
spreadsheets and graphs, I
attempted to find conclusive patterns that would assist in future earthquake
predictions.

Objectives/Goals

By analyzing the recorded data of the past and developing mathematical tables,
spreadsheets and graphs, I
attempted to find conclusive patterns that would assist in future earthquake
predictions.

Methods/Materials

I gathered earthquake information from the U.C. Berkeley web site for the Los
Angeles basin, and then
transfered data into mathematical tables from which magnitudes were pulled to
form spreadsheets by year.
Utilizing these spreadsheets, I created graphs using different variables for
each magnitude group. These
individual year graphs showed no apparent pattern. To further evaluate the data,
continuing with the
magnitude groups, I combined the years in groups of five, ten, and twenty years.
I then gathered totals and
averages, and created new spreadsheets from which new graphs were created for
analysis.

Results

To carry out this experiment, each graph was thoroughly analyzed for a
repeatable pattern. The individual
year graphs showed no obvious pattern. The five, ten, and twenty year graphs
however did show a some
possible repeatable pattern. It would appear the increase in the lower magnitude
earthquakes did indicate
an increase in frequency of greater magnitude earthquakes, but only within a
general time frame, not to a
specific point of time reference.

Conclusions/Discussion

The original hypothesis was that by looking at the patterns of the past we might
be able to develop
mathematical models for future prediction. Based on my analysis, this hypothesis
could be accepted as
true in part. The increase in the lower intensity earthquakes did correlate with
a rise in greater intensity
earthquakes. Although this project shows an evident pattern in the relationship
between the lower
intensity and the higher intensity earthquakes, there is no precise equation to
show the relationship in
quantity and magnitude, nor highly exact time frames; only generalities and
trends.

Summary Statement

By using mathematical tables, spreadsheets, and graphs, I was able to analyze
earthquake magnitudes to
define patterns.