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Statistics & Probability Science Fair Project

Marbles and the Bell Curve

Medium
Marbles and the Bell Curve | Science Fair Projects | STEM Projects
Can you predict where a marble will land after bouncing through a grid of pegs? You build a pegboard device with 12 compartments along the bottom. A funnel at the top drops marbles onto wooden dowels that deflect them randomly. You release 200 marbles at a time. About 50% land in the two center slots. Around 34% split across the three slots on each side. The remaining 16% reach the two outermost slots on each end. This pattern repeats within 5% on every trial. The results form a bell curve, and you can predict the spread before each drop.

Hypothesis

The hypothesis is that the probability of the marbles falling into each compartment will follow a bell curve.

Science Concepts Learned

Probability

At each peg inside a Galton board, a marble has a roughly equal chance of bouncing left or right. After many such bounces, those tiny random deflections add up. Drop 200 marbles and something predictable emerges: about 50% land in the two center slots, and the overall spread forms a bell curve — a pattern you can predict before a single marble falls.

Frequency Distribution

Release 200 marbles from a funnel at the top of a pegboard and let them fall into 12 compartments along the bottom. Counting how many land in each slot gives you a frequency distribution — a picture of which results happen often and which happen rarely. About 50% end up in the two center slots, a pattern that emerges from the structure of the device itself.

Normal Distribution

A pegboard device puts normal distribution on display. You drop 200 marbles through a grid of wooden dowels that deflect each marble randomly left or right. About 50% land in the two center slots, while only 16% reach the two outermost slots on each end. Each random bounce adds up across many rows, and the combined effect pushes most marbles toward the middle. The pattern repeats within 5% on every trial — and the results form a bell curve, the defining shape of a normal distribution.

Method & Materials

You will construct a device with 12 compartments and drop marbles from a funnel at the top.
You will need a 1 foot X 2 foot piece of pegboard, 12 one inch slats, wooden dowels, and marbles.

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Results

The experiment showed that the probability of the marbles falling into each compartment followed a bell curve. The results were consistent within 5% each trial.

Why do this project?

This science project is interesting because it shows how a bell curve can be used to predict probability.

Also Consider

Experiment variations to consider include using different sizes of marbles or different sizes of compartments.

Full project details

Additional information and source material for this project are available below.
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