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Statistics & Probability Science Fair Project

Baseball Win Streaks and Random Chance

Hard
Baseball Win Streaks and Random Chance | Science Fair Projects | STEM Projects
Do baseball winning and losing streaks happen more often than pure luck would predict? You look at every game from the 2001 National League season and count how often teams went on streaks of each length. Then you create two artificial seasons based on chance alone. One uses a Monte Carlo simulation (a coin-flip model). The other uses calculated streak formulas. You compare the real streak counts to the artificial ones using standard deviation. The real streaks differ from the random models at both 95% and 99% confidence levels. Streaks in baseball are not purely random. Factors like pitcher rotation and playing games in a series likely play a role.

Hypothesis

The hypothesis is that factors other than random chance affect the frequency of win/loss streaks in baseball.

Method & Materials

You will compare the streak frequencies of the National League in 2001 to two artificial seasons. One will be a Monte Carlo simulation using a coin flip and the other will be a season based on calculated streak frequencies.
You will need data from the National League in 2001, a coin, and a calculator.

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Results

Our experiment showed that the distribution and frequency of streaks in Major League Baseball is not purely random. Factors contributing deviation from randomness could include pitcher rotation or playing games in series.

Why do this project?

This science project is unique because it looks at a phenomenon that is often taken for granted and tries to explain it.

Also Consider

Experiment variations to consider include looking at different leagues or different years.

Full project details

Additional information and source material for this project are available below.
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