All Science Fair Projects

Project Title: Streaks in Baseball: A Matter of Chance?

Objectives/Goals

The purpose of my project was to determine whether random chance alone or other
factors affect the
frequency of win/loss streaks in baseball. My hypothesis was that factors other
than random chance affect
the frequency of win/loss streaks in baseball.

Methods/Materials

I began by finding the actual frequency of streaks in the National League for
2001. Then I used two
techniques to create artificial seasons based on chance alone. One was a Monte
Carlo simulation using a
coin flip. The other was a season based on calculated streak frequencies. Using
a test of significance, I
compared the Standard Deviations (SD) of the streak frequencies in the National
League to the SD of the
streak frequencies of the artificial seasons.

Results

The artificial season based on calculated streak frequencies yielded more
comparable results than the
Monte Carlo simulation. When compared to the actual National League streak
frequencies, the theoretical
frequencies were significantly different at both the 95% and 99% confidence.

Conclusions/Discussion

The distribution and frequency of streaks in Major League Baseball is not purely
random, confirming my
hypothesis. However, much of the streakiness appears to be caused by random
chance. Factors
contributing deviation from randomness could include pitcher rotation or playing
games in series.

Summary Statement

My project explored the causes of the frequencies of streaks in baseball and
discovered that the
frequencies are not caused purely by random chance, but by other factors as
well.

Help Received

Father helped with writing, grammer and understanding concepts. Family friend
helped set up F-test.