
Earnings Data and Stock Price Prediction
Hard
Can a set of math equations predict where a stock price is headed? You gather earnings data from SEC filings for over 108 stocks across different sizes and industries. Each financial indicator gets a score from -1 to +1.
You factor these scores into an overall equation. Then you test the system's predictions over time periods from 3 months to 5 years.
The resulting system identifies profitable stocks about 95% of the time. Over a one-year test period, the picks return 64% on the investment with less than 5% prediction error.
Hypothesis
The hypothesis is that a system using theoretical and mathematical ratios and data can predict future profitable stocks 95% of the time.
Method & Materials
You will use data from SEC filings of stocks of different sizes and industries to gather fundamental data regarding their earnings. You will then factor a value of -1 to +1 for each indicator into the overall equation.
You will need data from SEC filings of stocks of different sizes and industries, a calculator, and a computer.
Results
This project has shown that a system using theoretical and mathematical ratios and data can predict future profitable stocks 95% of the time. The result of this project was a system which can predict the future fluctuations and trends of a security with less than a 5% error.
Why do this project?
This science project is unique because it provides an opportunity to use math and data to predict stock market fluctuations and make money.
Also Consider
Experiment variations to consider include predicting price fluctuations of securities over the course of 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, 3 years and 5 years.
Full project details
Additional information and source material for this project are available below.Share this Science Project:
Related Science Fair Project Ideas
Discover that there are over 666 quadrillion ways to make change for ten thousand dollars and build an algorithm fast enough to count them.
Hard
Simulate a Rubik's Cube on a computer and discover that its scramble pattern follows a polynomial equation as you repeat the same moves.
Hard
Model four income levels against real housing prices to discover whether buying or renting builds more wealth over 30 years.
Hard
Share this Science Project:
