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Applied Mathematics Science Fair Project

Earnings Data and Stock Price Prediction

Hard
Earnings Data and Stock Price Prediction | Science Fair Projects | STEM Projects
Can a set of math equations predict where a stock price is headed? You gather earnings data from SEC filings for over 108 stocks across different sizes and industries. Each financial indicator gets a score from -1 to +1. You factor these scores into an overall equation. Then you test the system's predictions over time periods from 3 months to 5 years. The resulting system identifies profitable stocks about 95% of the time. Over a one-year test period, the picks return 64% on the investment with less than 5% prediction error.

Hypothesis

The hypothesis is that a system using theoretical and mathematical ratios and data can predict future profitable stocks 95% of the time.

Method & Materials

You will use data from SEC filings of stocks of different sizes and industries to gather fundamental data regarding their earnings. You will then factor a value of -1 to +1 for each indicator into the overall equation.
You will need data from SEC filings of stocks of different sizes and industries, a calculator, and a computer.

Results

This project has shown that a system using theoretical and mathematical ratios and data can predict future profitable stocks 95% of the time. The result of this project was a system which can predict the future fluctuations and trends of a security with less than a 5% error.

Why do this project?

This science project is unique because it provides an opportunity to use math and data to predict stock market fluctuations and make money.

Also Consider

Experiment variations to consider include predicting price fluctuations of securities over the course of 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, 3 years and 5 years.

Full project details

Additional information and source material for this project are available below.
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